No Referendum on Europe in The Queen’s Speech

The issue of Europe continues to split the Tories this week following a Queen’s Speech that didn’t include a new law to provide a British referendum on EU membership.  The absence of a bill is problematic for the Conservatives, because on this issue David Cameron has made two promises; a referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017, and if the Tories win the General Election in 2015, a renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s membership in advance of any referendum.

A referendum in 2017 would be the second of its sort.  In 1975 just over 67% of voters supported Harold Wilson’s Labour government’s campaign to stay in the EEC.  So what would happen if a referendum were held today?  The latest YouGov (April 2013) polling puts the margin at 43-35%, with more people wanting to leave the EU than remain in, a gap of 8-points.  But a ‘no’ vote is not a foregone conclusion.  Today’s 8-point gap is narrower than in recent years when it has been as wide as 15-20 points.  As recently as mid-January the position was reversed, with polling suggesting more people wanted to stay in the EU than leave.  How you phrase the question matters too. When asked the following question the results reverse and a three-to-two majority respond in favour of remaining in the EU. 

            Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain's interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms.  How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?

Cameron, along with Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, wants the UK to remain in the EU.  If there is a Conservative victory under Cameron in 2015 and he can be seen by the public to have renegotiated some of the terms of Britain’s membership, history may well repeat itself.  Harold Wilson’s renegotiation ahead of a referendum was sufficient to secure him a victory of two-to-one to remain in the EEC.  A combination of a Cameron victory in 2015 and the absence of a national consensus on the EU will provide for a referendum that maintains the status quo (as with the referendum on AV).

But do watch out for two potentially significant developments this week.  Rebel Tories have drawn up an amendment criticizing the Queen’s speech for not including a bill paving the way for a referendum.  If the rebel amendment, led by Eurosceptics John Baron and Peter Bone, is selected for the debate this Tuesday or Wednesday, it is unlikely to succeed.  Ministers have been advised to abstain and only around 100 backbench Tories are likely to support it.  It will doubtless serve as an effective protest but is bound to damage the Conservative Party.   On Thursday the ballot for private member’s bills (laws proposed by individual MPs) will be drawn.  A number of Euroskeptic backbenchers will be hoping for a top spot in the ballot which will guarantee them parliamentary time for a debate on an EU membership referendum bill.  Having already supported the idea of a new law on a referendum, David Cameron would have little choice but to support such a bill, although it is unlikely that anything would reach the statute book before the election.